Semi-parametric estimation of age-time specific infection incidence from serial prevalence data

Stat Med. 1999 Feb 15;18(3):307-20. doi: 10.1002/(sici)1097-0258(19990215)18:3<307::aid-sim15>3.0.co;2-z.

Abstract

Many infections cause lasting detectable immune responses, whose prevalence can be estimated from cross-sectional surveys. However, such surveys do not provide direct information on the incidence of infection. We address the issue of estimating age and time specific incidence from a series of prevalence surveys under the assumption that incidence changes exponentially with time, but make no assumption about the age specific incidence. We show that these assumptions lead to a proportional hazards model and estimate its parameters using semi-parametric maximum likelihood methods. The method is applied to tuberculin surveys in The Netherlands to explore age dependence of the risk of tuberculous infection in the presence of a strong secular decline in this risk.

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Age Distribution
  • Algorithms
  • Child
  • Cohort Studies
  • Epidemiologic Methods
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Incidence
  • Likelihood Functions
  • Male
  • Netherlands / epidemiology
  • Prevalence
  • Proportional Hazards Models*
  • Risk Assessment
  • Statistics, Nonparametric
  • Tuberculosis / epidemiology*