Objective: To investigate if multivariate risk calculation can discriminate those infants who do not recover after an obstetric brachial plexus injury (OBPI).
Study design: All liveborn infants without lethal congenital abnormalities from 1988 through 1996 with a gestational age > or =30 weeks were included. Outcome variables were all OBPI and non-recovered OBPI. Risk calculation was performed by univariate analysis for all infants and by multivariate logistic analysis for all singleton infants delivered vaginally in cephalic presentation.
Results: A total of 62 of 13 366 liveborn infants sustained an OBPI (0.46%). Seventeen (27%) did not recover completely. Birth weight, female sex, second stage >60 min, diabetes, multiparity, maternal age and non-Caucasian origin were important risk factors for non-recovered OBPI. A model without birth weight, which can not be measured accurately antepartum, is considerably less effective. Risk factors for all OBPI and for non-recovered OBPI were similar.
Conclusion: A predictive multivariate model is of limited value due to the low incidence of non-recovered OBPI. However, it may be useful to discriminate individual cases with exceptional risk.