Background: The selection of patients for cardiac transplantation is notoriously difficult. We have demonstrated that N-terminal brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) is a powerful predictor of mortality in advanced heart failure and is superior to the traditional markers of chronic heart failure (CHF) severity. However, the comparative prognostic power of endothelin-1 (Et-1), adrenomedullin (Adm) and tumour necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha) in this patient group is unknown.
Methods and results: We prospectively studied 150 consecutive patients with advanced CHF referred for consideration of cardiac transplantation. Blood samples for NT-proBNP, Et-1, Adm and TNF-alpha analysis were taken at recruitment and patients followed up for a median of 666 days. The primary endpoint of all-cause mortality was reached in 25 patients and the secondary endpoint of all-cause mortality or urgent cardiac transplantation in 29 patients. The median values for NT-proBNP, Et-1, Adm and TNF-alpha were 1494 pg/ml [interquartile range 530-3930], 0.39 fmol/ml [0.10-1.24], 94 pg/ml [54-207] and 2.0 pg/ml [0-18.5] respectively. The only univariate and multivariate predictor of all-cause mortality (chi(2)=26.95, p<0.0001), or the secondary endpoint of all-cause mortality or urgent transplantation (chi(2)=31.23, p<0.0001), was an NT-proBNP concentration above the median value.
Conclusion: A single measurement of NT-proBNP in patients with advanced CHF can help identify patients at the highest risk of death, and is a better prognostic marker than Et-1, Adm and TNF-alpha.