Analysis of donor chimerism is an important diagnostic tool to assess the risk of relapse after allogeneic stem cell transplantation, especially in patients lacking a specific marker suitable for monitoring of minimal residual disease. We prospectively investigated the predictive value of donor chimerism analyses in sorted CD34(+) peripheral blood cells in 90 patients with acute leukemia and myelodysplastic syndrome. The cumulative incidence of relapse after four years was significantly increased in cases with decreasing or incomplete CD34(+) donor chimerism (57% vs. 18%, p=0.0001). Multivariate analysis confirmed decreasing CD34(+) donor chimerism as an independent predictor of relapse and inferior survival. The interval between a decrease of CD34(+) chimerism of less than 80% and hematologic relapse was 61 days (range 0-567). Monitoring of CD34(+) donor chimerism in the peripheral blood allows prediction of imminent relapse after allogeneic stem cell transplantation even when a disease-specific marker is lacking.