The effect of HAART on HIV RNA trajectory among treatment-naïve men and women: a segmental Bernoulli/lognormal random effects model with left censoring

Epidemiology. 2010 Jul;21 Suppl 4(0 4):S25-34. doi: 10.1097/EDE.0b013e3181ce9950.

Abstract

Background: Highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) rapidly suppresses human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) viral replication and reduces circulating viral load, but the long-term effects of HAART on viral load remain unclear.

Methods: We evaluated HIV viral load trajectories over 8 years following HAART initiation in the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study and the Women's Interagency HIV Study. The study included 157 HIV-infected men and 199 HIV-infected women who were antiretroviral naive and contributed 1311 and 1837 semiannual person-visits post-HAART, respectively. To account for within-subject correlation and the high proportion of left-censored viral loads, we used a segmental Bernoulli/lognormal random effects model.

Results: Approximately 3 months (0.30 years for men and 0.22 years for women) after HAART initiation, HIV viral loads were optimally suppressed (ie, with very low HIV RNA) for 44% (95% confidence interval = 39%-49%) of men and 43% (38%-47%) of women, whereas the other 56% of men and 57% of women had on average 2.1 (1.5-2.6) and 3.0 (2.7-3.2) log10 copies/mL, respectively.

Conclusion: After 8 years on HAART, 75% of men and 80% of women had optimal suppression, whereas the rest of the men and women had suboptimal suppression with a median HIV RNA of 3.1 and 3.7 log10 copies/mL, respectively.

Publication types

  • Multicenter Study
  • Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Anti-HIV Agents / pharmacology
  • Anti-HIV Agents / therapeutic use*
  • Antiretroviral Therapy, Highly Active* / statistics & numerical data
  • Cohort Studies
  • Female
  • HIV Infections / drug therapy*
  • HIV Infections / virology
  • HIV-1 / drug effects*
  • HIV-1 / genetics
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Models, Statistical*
  • Prospective Studies
  • RNA, Viral / drug effects
  • Time
  • Viral Load / drug effects*

Substances

  • Anti-HIV Agents
  • RNA, Viral

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