Background: Variceal bleeding (VB) is the main cause of death among cirrhotic patients. About 30-50% of early rebleeding is encountered few days after the acute episode of VB. It is necessary to stratify patients with high risk of very early rebleeding (VER) for more aggressive therapies. However, there are few and incompletely understood prognostic models for this purpose.
Aims: To determine the risk factors associated with VER after an acute VB. Assessment and comparison of a novel prognostic model generated by Classification and Regression Tree Analysis (CART) with classic-used models (MELD and Child-Pugh [CP]).
Patients and methods: Sixty consecutive cirrhotic patients with acute variceal bleeding. CART analysis, MELD and Child-Pugh scores were performed at admission. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were constructed to evaluate the predictive performance of the models.
Results: Very early rebleeding rate was 13%. Variables associated with VER were: serum albumin (p = 0.027), creatinine (p = 0.021) and transfused blood units in the first 24 hrs (p = 0.05). The area under the ROC for MELD, CHILD-Pugh and CART were 0.46, 0.50 and 0.82, respectively. The value of cut analyzed by CART for the significant variables were: 1) Albumin 2.85 mg/dL, 2) Packed red cells 2 units and 3) Creatinine 1.65 mg/dL the ABC-ROC.
Conclusion: Serum albumin, creatinine and number of transfused blood units were associated with VER. A simple CART algorithm combining these variables allows an accurate predictive assessment of VER after acute variceal bleeding. Key words: cirrhosis, variceal bleeding, esophageal varices, prognosis, portal hypertension.