Estimation of the diagnostic threshold accounting for decision costs and sampling uncertainty

Biom J. 2010 Oct;52(5):676-97. doi: 10.1002/bimj.200900294.

Abstract

Medical diagnostic tests are used to classify subjects as non-diseased or diseased. The classification rule usually consists of classifying subjects using the values of a continuous marker that is dichotomised by means of a threshold. Here, the optimum threshold estimate is found by minimising a cost function that accounts for both decision costs and sampling uncertainty. The cost function is optimised either analytically in a normal distribution setting or empirically in a free-distribution setting when the underlying probability distributions of diseased and non-diseased subjects are unknown. Inference of the threshold estimates is based on approximate analytically standard errors and bootstrap-based approaches. The performance of the proposed methodology is assessed by means of a simulation study, and the sample size required for a given confidence interval precision and sample size ratio is also calculated. Finally, a case example based on previously published data concerning the diagnosis of Alzheimer's patients is provided in order to illustrate the procedure.

MeSH terms

  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Algorithms
  • Alzheimer Disease / diagnosis
  • Biometry / methods*
  • Decision Making*
  • Decision Support Techniques
  • Diagnosis, Computer-Assisted
  • Diagnostic Errors / prevention & control
  • Humans
  • Models, Statistical
  • Reproducibility of Results
  • Sample Size