Ageing with HIV in South Africa

AIDS. 2011 Aug 24;25(13):1665-7. doi: 10.1097/QAD.0b013e32834982ea.

Abstract

We used an established microsimulation model, quantified to a rural South African setting with a well developed antiretroviral treatment programme, to predict the impact of antiretroviral therapy on the HIV epidemic in the population aged over 50 years. We show that the HIV prevalence in patients aged over 50 years will nearly double in the next 30 years, whereas the fraction of HIV-infected patients aged over 50 years will triple in the same period. This ageing epidemic has important consequences for the South African healthcare system, as older HIV patients require specialized care.

Publication types

  • Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Anti-HIV Agents / therapeutic use
  • Delivery of Health Care / trends
  • Female
  • Forecasting
  • HIV Infections / epidemiology*
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Models, Theoretical
  • Population Dynamics*
  • Prevalence
  • Risk Factors
  • Risk-Taking
  • Rural Health / trends*
  • Rural Population
  • South Africa / epidemiology

Substances

  • Anti-HIV Agents