Spatiotemporal analysis of infant measles using population attributable risk in Shandong province, 1999-2008

PLoS One. 2013 Nov 19;8(11):e79334. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0079334. eCollection 2013.

Abstract

Background: Reduction of measles incidence and mortality has been encouraging in China. However, it remains an important public health concern among infants. This study aimed to examine the space-time distribution pattern of infant measles occurrence for the period of 1999-2008 in Shandong, China.

Methods and findings: Measles cases among infants aged younger than 1 year were obtained from the national infectious diseases reporting information system. A spatiotemporal analysis using population attributable risk percent (PAR%) was used to distinguish between multiple geographic clusters of potential interest. The analysis detected 29 statistically significant space-time clusters with the most likely cluster in Zaozhuang City from 2006 to 2008. Of the 28 secondary clusters, 22 were found in 2008. The map of PAR%, relative risk (RR) and space-time cluster analysis indicated that the clusters were generally unchanged, and were found south-west and north-west of Shandong. The Lanshan District in Linyi had the highest PAR%, while highest RR was in the Yicheng District in Zaozhuang.

Conclusion: There were significant space-time clusters of infant measles in Shandong over the study period. PAR% is an effective way to analyze multiple clusters from their application like RR. Interrupting measles circulation and maintaining routine coverage over 95% may be the only effective strategy to achieve measles elimination.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • China / epidemiology
  • Humans
  • Infant
  • Measles / epidemiology*
  • Spatio-Temporal Analysis*

Grants and funding

This study was supported by the following grants: Shandong Provincial Natural Science Fund (ZR2010HM126), National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program, 2012CB955500-955502), National Research Program of the Ministry of Science and Technology, China (2012AA12A407 & 2013AA122003). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.