Exact Equations for SIR Epidemics on Tree Graphs

Bull Math Biol. 2015 Apr;77(4):614-45. doi: 10.1007/s11538-013-9923-5. Epub 2013 Dec 18.

Abstract

We consider Markovian susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) dynamics on time-invariant weighted contact networks where the infection and removal processes are Poisson and where network links may be directed or undirected. We prove that a particular pair-based moment closure representation generates the expected infectious time series for networks with no cycles in the underlying graph. Moreover, this "deterministic" representation of the expected behaviour of a complex heterogeneous and finite Markovian system is straightforward to evaluate numerically.

MeSH terms

  • Communicable Diseases / epidemiology
  • Computer Simulation
  • Epidemics / statistics & numerical data*
  • Humans
  • Markov Chains
  • Mathematical Concepts
  • Models, Statistical
  • Stochastic Processes
  • Systems Biology