Using mathematical transmission modelling to investigate drivers of respiratory syncytial virus seasonality in children in the Philippines

Stuart Paynter; Laith Yakob; Eric A F Simões; Marilla G Lucero; Veronica Tallo; Hanna Nohynek; Robert S Ware; Philip Weinstein; Gail Williams; Peter D Sly

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0090094

Using mathematical transmission modelling to investigate drivers of respiratory syncytial virus seasonality in children in the Philippines

PLoS One. 2014 Feb 27;9(2):e90094. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0090094. eCollection 2014.

Authors

Affiliations

¹ School of Population Health, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
² University of Colorado School of Medicine, Aurora, Colorado, United States of America ; Colorado School of Public Health, University of Colorado, Aurora, Colorado, United States of America.
³ Research Institute for Tropical Medicine, Department of Health, Muntinlupa City, Metro Manila, Philippines.
⁴ Department of Vaccines and Immune Protection, National Institute for Health and Welfare, Helsinki, Finland.
⁵ School of Population Health, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia ; Queensland Children's Medical Research Institute, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
⁶ Barbara Hardy Institute, University of South Australia, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia.
⁷ Queensland Children's Medical Research Institute, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.

Abstract

We used a mathematical transmission model to estimate when ecological drivers of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) transmissibility would need to act in order to produce the observed seasonality of RSV in the Philippines. We estimated that a seasonal peak in transmissibility would need to occur approximately 51 days prior to the observed peak in RSV cases (range 49 to 67 days). We then compared this estimated seasonal pattern of transmissibility to the seasonal patterns of possible ecological drivers of transmissibility: rainfall, humidity and temperature patterns, nutritional status, and school holidays. The timing of the seasonal patterns of nutritional status and rainfall were both consistent with the estimated seasonal pattern of transmissibility and these are both plausible drivers of the seasonality of RSV in this setting.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

Algorithms
Child
Child, Preschool
Humans
Incidence
Infant
Infant, Newborn
Models, Theoretical*
Philippines / epidemiology
Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections / epidemiology*
Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections / transmission*
Respiratory Syncytial Virus, Human*
Seasons*
Seroepidemiologic Studies

Grants and funding

The RSV admissions data and weight for age data were collected as part of the ARIVAC project, which was supported by the European Commission DG Research INCO program (contracts IC18-CY97-2019, ICA4-CT-1999-10008, ICA4-CT-2002-10062); Academy of Finland (contracts: 206283, 106974, 108873, and 108878); Finnish Ministry of Foreign Affairs (bilateral contracts 75502901 and 327/412/2000); Finnish Physicians for Social Responsibility; GAVI ADIP Pneumo; Sanofi Pasteur; Research Institute for Tropical Medicine of the Philippines; National Public Health Institute Finland; University of Queensland; University of Colorado; National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia; and Programme for Appropriate Technology in Health (PATH). The views expressed by the authors do not necessarily reflect the views of PATH. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.