Objective: To estimate the influence of Berkson errors in exposure doses on the results of risk analysis within example of radiation epidemiological studies of the thyroid cancer prevalence.
Materials and methods: The impact of Berkson errors of the thyroid doses in a dose-response analysis is studied by the method of stochastic simulation.
Results: Presence of errors in doses results in bias of the naive estimations of baseline morbidity and absolute risk excess in the linear logistic regression model. With the increase of dose errors the bias of the naive estimate increases almost linearly. The use of the full maximum likelihood method developed by authors improves essentially the estimates of parameters in the excess absolute risk model.
Conclusion: Ignoring of the significant Berkson errors in dose assessment leads to the bias in estimates of background morbidity (overestimated) and of the excess absolute risk (underestimated). At that the bias is essentially less than the one for the case of classical error.
Meta. Ocinyty vplyv pohybok berksonivs'kogo typu v dozah oprominennja na rezul'taty ryzyk-analizu na prykladi radioepidemiologichnyh doslidzhen' onkozahvorjuvanosti shhytopodibnoi' zalozy. Materialy ta metody. V roboti za dopomogoju imitacijnogo stohastychnogo modeljuvannja doslidzheno vplyv pohybok Berksona v dozah oprominennja shhytopodibnoi' zalozy na ocinku ryzykiv radioindukovanyh stohastychnyh efektiv. Rezul'taty. Pokazano, shho najavnist' pohybok u dozah pryzvodyt' do zsunennja tak zvanyh nai'vnyh ocinok fonovoi' zahvorjuvanosti i nadlyshkovogo absoljutnogo ryzyku v linijnij logistychnij modeli regresii'. Zi zbil'shennjam dozovyh pohybok zsunennja nai'vnyh ocinok praktychno linijno zrostaje. Vykorystannja rozroblenogo avtoramy metodu povnoi' maksymal'noi' virogidnosti suttjevo polipshuje ocinky parametriv modeli absoljutnogo ryzyku. Vysnovky. Ignoruvannja znachnyh berksonivs'kyh pohybok pryzvodyt' do pereocinky fonovoi' zahvorjuvanosti i nedoocinky ekscesu absoljutnogo ryzyku. U toj zhe chas zsuv znachno nyzhchyj, nizh u razi klasychnoi' pohybky.
Keywords: Berkson error; doses of exposure; full maximum likelihood method; naive estimator; radiation risk.
Masjuk S. V., Shkljar S. V., Kukush O. G., 2013.