Twentieth century surge of excess adult male mortality

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2015 Jul 21;112(29):8993-8. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1421942112. Epub 2015 Jul 6.

Abstract

Using historical data from 1,763 birth cohorts from 1800 to 1935 in 13 developed countries, we show that what is now seen as normal-a large excess of female life expectancy in adulthood-is a demographic phenomenon that emerged among people born in the late 1800s. We show that excess adult male mortality is clearly rooted in specific age groups, 50-70, and that the sex asymmetry emerged in cohorts born after 1880 when male:female mortality ratios increased by as much as 50% from a baseline of about 1.1. Heart disease is the main condition associated with increased excess male mortality for those born after 1900. We further show that smoking-attributable deaths account for about 30% of excess male mortality at ages 50-70 for cohorts born in 1900-1935. However, after accounting for smoking, substantial excess male mortality at ages 50-70 remained, particularly from cardiovascular disease. The greater male vulnerability to cardiovascular conditions emerged with the reduction in infectious mortality and changes in health-related behaviors.

Keywords: aging; cohort; excess male mortality; life expectancy; smoking.

Publication types

  • Historical Article
  • Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Age Distribution
  • Age Factors
  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Cause of Death
  • Cohort Studies
  • Female
  • History, 20th Century
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Mortality / history*
  • Smoking / mortality