Comparison of Risk Prediction With the CKD-EPI and MDRD Equations in Non-ST-Segment Elevation Acute Coronary Syndrome

Clin Cardiol. 2016 Sep;39(9):507-15. doi: 10.1002/clc.22556. Epub 2016 Jun 1.

Abstract

Background: Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equations estimate glomerular filtration rate (GFR) more accurately than the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) equation.

Hypothesis: New CKD-EPI equations improve risk stratification in patients with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTE-ACS) and provide complementary information to the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score.

Methods: We studied 350 subjects (mean age, 68 ± 12 years; 70% male) with NSTE-ACS. Estimated GFR was calculated using the MDRD and new CKD-EPI equations based on serum creatinine (SCr) and/or cystatin C (CysC) concentrations obtained within 48 hours of hospital admission. The primary endpoint was all-cause death during follow-up.

Results: Over the study period (median, 648 days [interquartile range, 236-1042 days]), 31 patients died (0.05% events per person-year). Decedents had poorer renal-function parameters (P < 0.001). Both CysC-based CKD-EPI equations had the highest areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the prediction of all-cause mortality. After multivariate adjustment, only CysC-based CKD-EPI equations were independent predictors of all-cause mortality (CKD-EPISCr - CysC , per mL/min/1.73 m(2) : hazard ratio: 0.975, 95% confidence interval: 0.956-0.994, P = 0.009; CKD-EPICysC , per mL/min/1.73 m(2) : hazard ratio: 0.976, 95% confidence interval: 0.959-0.993, P = 0.005). Reclassification analyses showed that only CysC-based CKD-EPI equations improved predictive accuracy of the GRACE risk score.

Conclusions: In patients with NSTE-ACS, CysC-based CKD-EPI equations improved clinical risk stratification for mortality and added complementary prognostic information to the GRACE risk score.

Publication types

  • Comparative Study

MeSH terms

  • Acute Coronary Syndrome / complications*
  • Acute Coronary Syndrome / diagnosis
  • Acute Coronary Syndrome / mortality
  • Acute Coronary Syndrome / physiopathology
  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Area Under Curve
  • Biomarkers / blood
  • Creatinine / blood
  • Cystatin C / blood
  • Female
  • Glomerular Filtration Rate*
  • Humans
  • Kaplan-Meier Estimate
  • Kidney / physiopathology*
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Models, Biological*
  • Non-ST Elevated Myocardial Infarction / complications*
  • Non-ST Elevated Myocardial Infarction / diagnosis
  • Non-ST Elevated Myocardial Infarction / mortality
  • Non-ST Elevated Myocardial Infarction / physiopathology
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • Prognosis
  • Proportional Hazards Models
  • ROC Curve
  • Renal Insufficiency, Chronic / complications
  • Renal Insufficiency, Chronic / diagnosis*
  • Renal Insufficiency, Chronic / mortality
  • Renal Insufficiency, Chronic / physiopathology
  • Risk Assessment
  • Risk Factors
  • Time Factors

Substances

  • Biomarkers
  • CST3 protein, human
  • Cystatin C
  • Creatinine