Ongoing trends have revealed an inverse relationship between population growth and the number of practicing urologists in the U.S. per capita, which threatens urologic care accessibility. Furthermore, different regions in the United States may be more negatively impacted due to higher population growth rates. The state of Florida witnessed over a 10% higher growth rate compared with national figures between 2000 and 2015. Coupled with data suggesting that since the 1980s, the number of U.S. urologists per capita has been decreasing, the foreseeable future presents many challenges regarding health equity and accessibility. This secondary analysis aimed to investigate the implications of forecasted urologic care decline within a growing population and how it can contribute to adverse male health outcomes. National- and state-level data were collected to calculate a series of urologic care ratios as defined by the number of urologists compared with population sizes. Analyses revealed that national-level urologic care ratios and prostate cancer incidence rates have a significant positive relationship, lending to the conclusion that with fewer urologists, the number of cases identified will decrease. State-level forecasted models indicated that the urologic care ratio will decrease approximately 30% in Florida from 6.23 per 100,000 in 2010 to 4.39 per 100,000 by the year 2030. As growth in demand for urologic care will increase in the next decade, a dire public health scenario is potentially unfolding. Future implications of undiagnosed prostate cancer due to the lack of access will drive an increase in mortality rates as well as health equity concerns for men.
Keywords: access to care; general health and wellness; health care utilization; health related quality of life; prostate cancer.