Projecting 10-year, 20-year, and Lifetime Risks of Cardiovascular Disease in Persons Living With Human Immunodeficiency Virus in the United States

Abstract

Background: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is an increasing cause of morbidity among persons living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV; PLWH). We projected cumulative CVD risk in PLWH in care compared to the US general population and persons HIV-uninfected, but at high risk for HIV.

Methods: We used a mathematical model to project cumulative CVD incidence. We simulated a male and female cohort for each of 3 populations: US general population; HIV-uninfected, at high risk for HIV; and PLWH. We incorporated the higher smoking prevalence and increased CVD risk due to smoking into the HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected, at high risk for HIV populations. We incorporated HIV-attributable CVD risk, independent of smoking.

Results: For men, life expectancy ranged from 70.2 to 77.5 years and for women from 67.0 to 81.1 years (PLWH, US general population). Without antiretroviral therapy, lifetime CVD risk for HIV-infected males and females was 12.9% and 9.0%. For males, by age 60, cumulative CVD incidence was estimated at 20.5% in PLWH in care, 14.6% in HIV-uninfected high-risk persons, and 12.8% in the US general population. For females, cumulative CVD incidence was projected to be 13.8% in PLWH in care, 9.7% for high-risk HIV-uninfected persons, and 9.4% in the US general population. Lifetime CVD risk was 64.8% for HIV-infected males compared to 54.8% for males in the US general population, but similar among females.

Conclusions: CVD risks should be a part of treatment evaluation among PLWH. CVD prevention strategies could offer important health benefits for PLWH and should be evaluated.

Keywords: HIV/AIDS; cardiovascular disease; lifetime risk.