Predictive factors of developing type 2 diabetes mellitus, Acute Myocardial Infarction and stroke in a cohort with Impaired Fasting Glucose in Singapore

Abstract

Aims: This study describes the incidence and predictive factors for development of Type II Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM), Acute Myocardial Infarction (AMI) and stroke, among subjects with IFG over a five-year period.

Methods: This is a retrospective cohort study of subjects with newly diagnosed IFG from the Singapore National Healthcare Group hospitals and primary care clinics from 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2010. Clinical data were collected over a five-year period from the date of diagnosis. Outcomes of interest were T2DM, AMI and stroke based on first occurrence of the ICD-9 diagnoses from the chronic disease registry. Demographic characteristics, laboratory tests, anthropometric measurements and medical history were adjusted for in the multivariate logistic regression.

Results: Out of 2295 eligible subjects, 552(24.1%) developed at least one of the outcomes. 492(21.4%) developed T2DM, 20(0.9%) developed AMI and 62(2.7%) developed stroke. Predictive factors for development of any of the three outcomes included age 40-49 [Adjusted OR=2.25; 95% CI 1.44-3.51], blood pressure of 140/90mmHg and above [Adjusted OR=1.62, 95% CI 1.26-2.10] and BMI of 27.5kg/m² or more [Adjusted OR=2.35; 95% CI 1.61-3.41]. Females were more likely to develop T2DM [Adjusted OR=1.43; 95% CI 1.10-1.85] but less likely to develop AMI and/or stroke compared to males [Adjusted OR=0.43; 95% CI 0.24-0.76].

Conclusions: Development of T2DM/AMI/stroke within the first five years of IFG is significantly high for subjects age 40-49 and those with high BMI. Frequency of cardiovascular risk screening, which is currently once every three years, could be increased.

Keywords: Diabetes mellitus; Myocardial infarction; Prediabetic state; Stroke.