COMPUTATION OF ℛ IN AGE-STRUCTURED EPIDEMIOLOGICAL MODELS WITH MATERNAL AND TEMPORARY IMMUNITY

Discrete Continuous Dyn Syst Ser B. 2016 Mar;21(2):399-415. doi: 10.3934/dcdsb.2016.21.399. Epub 2015 Nov 1.

Abstract

For infectious diseases such as pertussis, susceptibility is determined by immunity, which is chronological age-dependent. We consider an age-structured epidemiological model that accounts for both passively acquired maternal antibodies that decay and active immunity that wanes, permitting reinfection. The model is a 6-dimensional system of partial differential equations (PDE). By assuming constant rates within each age-group, the PDE system can be reduced to an ordinary differential equation (ODE) system with aging from one age-group to the next. We derive formulae for the effective reproduction number ℛ and provide their biological interpretation in some special cases. We show that the disease-free equilibrium is stable when ℛ < 1 and unstable if ℛ > 1.

Keywords: Age-structured epidemiological model; multiple infections; partial immunity; reproduction numbers.