MECHANISTIC MODELING PREDICTS NO SIGNIFICANT DOSE RATE EFFECT ON HEAVY-ION CARCINOGENESIS AT DOSE RATES RELEVANT FOR SPACE EXPLORATION

Abstract

Heavy ion-induced carcinogenesis is a challenge for human space exploration, and mechanistically-motivated mathematical models are needed to predict space-relevant low dose-rate risks, which are difficult to measure experimentally, based on data at higher dose rates. We present such a model, which quantifies targeted and non-targeted radiation effects. We fitted it to lung carcinogenesis data in radon-exposed miners and rats, which provide valuable information on carcinogenesis from protracted exposure to densely-ionizing radiation. We generated model-based estimates for the dose-rate-effect, relative to acute exposures, on heavy ion-induced carcinogenesis at doses/dose rates expected during a Mars mission. A small and not statistically-significant dose-rate effect was predicted: 1.00 (95% CI: 0.54, 1.40) for human data and for combined human and rat data 0.93 (0.06, 1.49). Consequently, heavy ion carcinogenesis estimates from moderate/high dose-rate experimental data may be applicable to doses/dose rates relevant for space exploration.