Background The Framingham Risk Score estimates the 10-year risk of cardiovascular events. However, it performs poorly in older adults. We evaluated the incremental benefit of adding high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I (hs-cTnI) to the Framingham Risk Score. Methods and Results The HIMS (Health in Men Study) is a cohort study of community-dwelling men aged 70 to 89 years in Western Australia. Participants were identified from the electoral roll, with a subset undergoing plasma analysis. Hs- cTnI (Abbott Architect i2000 SR ) was measured in 1151 men without prior cardiovascular disease. The Western Australia Data Linkage System was used to identify incident cardiovascular events. After 10 years of follow-up, 252 men (22%) had a cardiovascular event ( CVE +) and 899 did not (CVE-). The Framingham Risk Score placed 148 (59%) CVE + and 415 (46%) CVE- in the high-risk category. In CVE - men, adding hs- cTnI affected the risk categories of 244 (27.2%) men, with 64.8% appropriately reclassified to a lower and 35.2% to a higher category, which decreased the number of high-risk men in the CVE- to 39%. In CVE + men, adding hs- cTnI affected the risk categories of 61 (24.2%), with 50.8% appropriately reclassified to a higher and 49.2% to a lower category and 82.5% remaining above the 15% risk treatment threshold. The net reclassification index was 0.305 ( P<0.001). Adding hs- cTnI increased the C-statistic modestly from 0.588 (95% CI , 0.552-0.624) to 0.624 (95% CI , 0.589-0.659) and improved model fit (likelihood ratio test, P<0.001). Conclusions Adding hs- cTnI to the Framingham Risk Score provided incremental prognostic benefit in older men, especially aiding reclassification of individuals into a lower risk category.
Keywords: aging; cardiovascular disease; cardiovascular disease prevention; cardiovascular disease risk factors; risk prediction; risk stratification; troponin.