Objectives: This study was conducted in order to establish and validate a radiomics model for predicting lymph node (LN) metastasis of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (IHC) and to determine its prognostic value.
Methods: For this retrospective study, a radiomics model was developed in a primary cohort of 103 IHC patients who underwent curative-intent resection and lymphadenectomy. Radiomics features were extracted from arterial phase computed tomography (CT) scans. A radiomics signature was built based on highly reproducible features using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) method. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was adopted to establish a radiomics model incorporating radiomics signature and other independent predictors. Model performance was determined by its discrimination, calibration, and clinical usefulness. The model was internally validated in 52 consecutive patients.
Results: The radiomics signature comprised eight LN-status-related features and showed significant association with LN metastasis in both cohorts (p < 0.001). A radiomics nomogram that incorporates radiomics signature and CA 19-9 level showed good calibration and discrimination in the primary cohort (AUC 0.8462) and validation cohort (AUC 0.8921). Promisingly, the radiomics nomogram yielded an AUC of 0.9224 in the CT-reported LN-negative subgroup. Decision curve analysis confirmed the clinical utility of this nomogram. High risk for metastasis portended significantly lower overall and recurrence-free survival than low risk for metastasis (both p < 0.001). The radiomics nomogram was an independent preoperative predictor of overall and recurrence-free survival.
Conclusions: Our radiomics model provided a robust diagnostic tool for prediction of LN metastasis, especially in CT-reported LN-negative IHC patients, that may facilitate clinical decision-making.
Key points: • The radiomics nomogram showed good performance for prediction of LN metastasis in IHC patients, particularly in the CT-reported LN-negative subgroup. • Prognosis of high-risk patients remains dismal after curative-intent resection. • The radiomics model may facilitate clinical decision-making and define patient subsets benefiting most from surgery.
Keywords: Cholangiocarcinoma; Decision support techniques; Lymphatic metastasis; Nomogram; Radiomics.