Predicting in-hospital death in patients with type B acute aortic dissection

Medicine (Baltimore). 2019 Aug;98(32):e16462. doi: 10.1097/MD.0000000000016462.

Abstract

The outcome of patients with acute type B aortic dissection (BAAD) is largely dictated by whether or not the case is "complicated." The purpose of this study was to investigate the risk factors leading to in-hospital death among patients with BAAD and then to develop a predictive model to estimate individual risk of in-hospital death.A total of 188 patients with BAAD were enrolled. Risk factors for in-hospital death were investigated with univariate and multivariable logistic regression analysis. Significant risk factors were used to develop a predictive model.The in-hospital mortality rate was 9% (17 of 188 patients). Univariate analysis revealed 7 risk factors to be statistically significant predictors of in-hospital death (P < .1). In multivariable analysis, the following variables at admission were independently associated with increased in-hospital mortality: hypotension (odds ratio [OR], 4.85; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.12-18.90; P = .04), ischemic complications (OR, 8.24; 95% CI, 1.25-33.85; P < .001), renal dysfunction (OR, 12.32; 95% CI, 10.63-76.66; P < .001), and neutrophil percentage ≥80% (OR, 5.76; 95% CI, 2.58-12.56; P = .03). Based on these multivariable results, a reliable and simple prediction model was developed, a total score of 4 offered the best point value.Independent risk factors associated with in-hospital death can be predicted in BAAD patients. The prediction model could be used to identify the prognosis for BAAD patients and assist physicians in their choice of management.

Publication types

  • Observational Study

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Aortic Aneurysm, Thoracic / classification
  • Aortic Aneurysm, Thoracic / mortality*
  • Aortic Aneurysm, Thoracic / therapy
  • Aortic Dissection / classification
  • Aortic Dissection / mortality*
  • Aortic Dissection / therapy
  • Comorbidity
  • Female
  • Hospital Mortality*
  • Humans
  • Logistic Models
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Neutrophils / metabolism
  • Odds Ratio
  • Risk Factors