Lessons on Climate Sensitivity From Past Climate Changes

Anna S von der Heydt; Henk A Dijkstra; Roderik S W van de Wal; Rodrigo Caballero; Michel Crucifix; Gavin L Foster; Matthew Huber; Peter Köhler; Eelco Rohling; Paul J Valdes; Peter Ashwin; Sebastian Bathiany; Tijn Berends; Loes G J van Bree; Peter Ditlevsen; Michael Ghil; Alan M Haywood; Joel Katzav; Gerrit Lohmann; Johannes Lohmann; Valerio Lucarini; Alice Marzocchi; Heiko Pälike; Itzel Ruvalcaba Baroni; Dirk Simon; Appy Sluijs; Lennert B Stap; Alexis Tantet; Jan Viebahn; Martin Ziegler

doi:10.1007/s40641-016-0049-3

Lessons on Climate Sensitivity From Past Climate Changes

Curr Clim Change Rep. 2016;2(4):148-158. doi: 10.1007/s40641-016-0049-3. Epub 2016 Oct 20.

Authors

Anna S von der Heydt¹, Henk A Dijkstra¹, Roderik S W van de Wal¹, Rodrigo Caballero², Michel Crucifix³, Gavin L Foster⁴, Matthew Huber^{5

6}, Peter Köhler⁷, Eelco Rohling^{4

8}, Paul J Valdes⁹, Peter Ashwin¹⁰, Sebastian Bathiany¹¹, Tijn Berends¹, Loes G J van Bree¹², Peter Ditlevsen¹³, Michael Ghil^{14

15}, Alan M Haywood¹⁶, Joel Katzav^{17

18}, Gerrit Lohmann^{7

19}, Johannes Lohmann¹³, Valerio Lucarini^{20

21}, Alice Marzocchi²², Heiko Pälike¹⁹, Itzel Ruvalcaba Baroni²³, Dirk Simon²⁴, Appy Sluijs¹², Lennert B Stap¹, Alexis Tantet¹, Jan Viebahn¹, Martin Ziegler²⁴

Affiliations

¹ 1Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Centre for Extreme Matter and Emergent Phenomena, Utrecht University, Princetonplein 5, 3584 CC Utrecht, The Netherlands.
² 2Department of Meteorology and Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, 10691 Stockholm, Sweden.
³ 3Earth and Life Institute, Université catholique de Louvain, 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium.
⁴ 4Ocean and Earth Science, University of Southampton, National Oceanography Centre Southampton, Southampton, SO14 3ZH UK.
⁵ 5Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN 47907 USA.
⁶ 6Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space, University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH 03814 USA.
⁷ 7Alfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar-und Meeresforschung (AWI), P.O. Box 12 01 61, 27515 Bremerhaven, Germany.
⁸ 8Research School of Earth Sciences, The Australian National University, Canberra, 2601 Australia.
⁹ 9Cabot Institute and School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1SS UK.
¹⁰ 10Centre for Systems, Dynamics and Control, Department of Mathematics, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QF UK.
¹¹ 11Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, 6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands.
¹² 12Department of Earth Sciences, Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, 3584 CS Utrecht, The Netherlands.
¹³ 13Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Juliane Maries Vej 30, 2100 Copenhagen O, Denmark.
¹⁴ Department of Geosciences and Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (CNRS and IPSL), Ecole Normale Supérieure, 75231 Paris Cedex, France.
¹⁵ 15Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, 90095-9567 USA.
¹⁶ 16School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Woodhouse Lane, Leeds LS2 9JT UK.
¹⁷ 17School of Innovation Sciences, Philosophy Department, Eindhoven University of Technology, Eeuwsel 5612, AZ Eindhoven, The Netherlands.
¹⁸ 18School of Historical and Philosophical Inquiry, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, QLD 4072 Australia.
¹⁹ 19MARUM-Center for Marine Environmental Sciences, University of Bremen, Leobener Strasse, 28359 Bremen, Germany.
²⁰ 20CEN, Institute of Meteorology, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany.
²¹ 21Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Reading, Reading, UK.
²² 22Department of the Geophysical Sciences, The University of Chicago, 5734 South Ellis Avenue, Chicago, IL 60637 USA.
²³ 23Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University, Princetonplein 9, 3584 CC Utrecht, The Netherlands.
²⁴ 24Department of Earth Sciences, Utrecht University, PO Box 80.021, 3508 TA Utrecht, The Netherlands.

Abstract

Over the last decade, our understanding of climate sensitivity has improved considerably. The climate system shows variability on many timescales, is subject to non-stationary forcing and it is most likely out of equilibrium with the changes in the radiative forcing. Slow and fast feedbacks complicate the interpretation of geological records as feedback strengths vary over time. In the geological past, the forcing timescales were different than at present, suggesting that the response may have behaved differently. Do these insights constrain the climate sensitivity relevant for the present day? In this paper, we review the progress made in theoretical understanding of climate sensitivity and on the estimation of climate sensitivity from proxy records. Particular focus lies on the background state dependence of feedback processes and on the impact of tipping points on the climate system. We suggest how to further use palaeo data to advance our understanding of the currently ongoing climate change.

Keywords: Climate sensitivity; Climate tipping points; Palaeoclimate.

Publication types

Review