Stochastic modeling of influenza spread dynamics with recurrences

PLoS One. 2020 Apr 21;15(4):e0231521. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0231521. eCollection 2020.

Abstract

We present results of a study of a simple, stochastic, agent-based model of influenza A infection, simulating its dynamics over the course of one flu season. Building on an early work of Bartlett, we define a model with a limited number of parameters and rates that have clear epidemiological interpretation and can be constrained by data. We demonstrate the occurrence of recurrent behavior in the infected number [more than one peak in a season], which is observed in data, in our simulations for populations consisting of cohorts with strong intra- and weak inter-cohort transmissibility. We examine the dependence of the results on epidemiological and population characteristics by investigating their dependence on a range of parameter values. Finally, we study infection with two strains of influenza, inspired by observations, and show a counter-intuitive result for the effect of inoculation against the strain that leads to the first wave of infection.

Publication types

  • Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Computer Simulation
  • Humans
  • Immunization
  • Influenza A virus*
  • Influenza, Human / epidemiology*
  • Influenza, Human / transmission
  • Models, Theoretical*
  • Periodicity
  • Recurrence
  • Stochastic Processes