A Comparison of Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II Score and Serum Procalcitonin Change for Predicting Mortality in Acute Pancreatitis

Abstract

Introduction: The prediction of mortality in acute pancreatitis (AP) is a useful estimate for effective treatment. Scoring systems such as acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE) II, computed tomography (CT) severity index (CTSI), bedside index of severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP), etc., are used for prediction. Biomarkers like C-reactive protein (CRP) and procalcitonin (PCT) are also considered useful for prognostication. The aim of this retrospective study was to correlate the changes in serum PCT level with APACHE II score between admission and 48 hours as mortality predictor in AP.

Materials and methods: The observational study was conducted in a cohort of 42 patients admitted consecutively in the seven-bedded general intensive care unit (ICU) of our institute between June 2016 and May 2018, with the diagnosis of AP. The APACHE II score and serum PCT level at admission and 48 hours were retrieved from the hospital database. The change in APACHE II and PCT level was compared between ICU "survivors" and "nonsurvivors." The predictive accuracy of APACHE II and PCT was measured using area under receiver-operator characteristics (ROC) curve. A p value <0.05 was considered as significant.

Results: Of the 42 patients enrolled, 30 patients (71.42%) were survivors and 12 (28.58%) were nonsurvivors. The median APACHE II score in nonsurvivors increased from 16 (7-19) to 23 (11-29) and remained unchanged at 16 (9-19 at admission; 10-22 at 48 hours) in survivors. The median PCT levels increased from 3.8 (1.2-5.6) to 6.2 (1.9-12.5) in nonsurvivors and decreased from 3.8 (1.2-5.6) to 2.2 (0.6-2.9) in survivors. Serum PCT change compared better than the APACHE II score change among survivors (r = 0.455, p = 0.011) with a mean (±standard deviation SD) change of 1.41 (±1.59).

Conclusion: The change in serum PCT and APACHE II between admission and 48 hours correlates well and is useful for mortality prediction in AP. Serum PCT change compares better than APACHE II score change in survivors.

How to cite this article: Choudhuri AH, Duggal S, Biswas PS, Uppal R. A Comparison of Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II Score and Serum Procalcitonin Change for Predicting Mortality in Acute Pancreatitis. Indian J Crit Care Med 2020;24(3):190-194.

Keywords: Acute pancreatitis; Acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II; Procalcitonin.