Pervasive shifts in forest dynamics in a changing world

Nate G McDowell; Craig D Allen; Kristina Anderson-Teixeira; Brian H Aukema; Ben Bond-Lamberty; Louise Chini; James S Clark; Michael Dietze; Charlotte Grossiord; Adam Hanbury-Brown; George C Hurtt; Robert B Jackson; Daniel J Johnson; Lara Kueppers; Jeremy W Lichstein; Kiona Ogle; Benjamin Poulter; Thomas A M Pugh; Rupert Seidl; Monica G Turner; Maria Uriarte; Anthony P Walker; Chonggang Xu

doi:10.1126/science.aaz9463

Pervasive shifts in forest dynamics in a changing world

Science. 2020 May 29;368(6494):eaaz9463. doi: 10.1126/science.aaz9463.

Authors

Nate G McDowell¹, Craig D Allen², Kristina Anderson-Teixeira^{3

4}, Brian H Aukema⁵, Ben Bond-Lamberty⁶, Louise Chini⁷, James S Clark⁸, Michael Dietze⁹, Charlotte Grossiord¹⁰, Adam Hanbury-Brown¹¹, George C Hurtt⁷, Robert B Jackson¹², Daniel J Johnson¹³, Lara Kueppers^{11

14}, Jeremy W Lichstein¹⁵, Kiona Ogle¹⁶, Benjamin Poulter¹⁷, Thomas A M Pugh^{18

19}, Rupert Seidl^{20

21}, Monica G Turner²², Maria Uriarte²³, Anthony P Walker²⁴, Chonggang Xu²⁵

Affiliations

¹ Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA 99354, USA. nate.mcdowell@pnnl.gov.
² U.S. Geological Survey, Fort Collins Science Center, New Mexico Landscapes Field Station, Los Alamos, NM 87544, USA.
³ Conservation Ecology Center, Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, Front Royal, VA 22630, USA.
⁴ Forest Global Earth Observatory, Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Republic of Panama.
⁵ Department of Entomology, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108, USA.
⁶ Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD 20740, USA.
⁷ Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA.
⁸ Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, USA.
⁹ Department of Earth and Environment, Boston University, Boston, MA 02215, USA.
¹⁰ Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, 8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland.
¹¹ Energy and Resources Group, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA.
¹² Department of Earth System Science, Woods Institute for the Environment, and Precourt Institute for Energy, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.
¹³ School of Forest Resources and Conservation, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA.
¹⁴ Division of Climate and Ecosystem Sciences, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA.
¹⁵ Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA.
¹⁶ School of Informatics, Computing, and Cyber Systems, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ 86001, USA.
¹⁷ Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA.
¹⁸ School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, B15 2TT Birmingham, UK.
¹⁹ Birmingham Institute of Forest Research, University of Birmingham, B15 2TT Birmingham, UK.
²⁰ Department of Forest and Soil Sciences, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna, 1180 Vienna, Austria.
²¹ School of Life Sciences, Technical University of Munich, 85354 Freising, Germany.
²² Department of Integrative Biology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706, USA.
²³ Department of Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Biology, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, USA.
²⁴ Environmental Sciences Division and Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN 37831, USA.
²⁵ Earth and Environmental Sciences Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545, USA.

PMID: 32467364
DOI: 10.1126/science.aaz9463

Abstract

Forest dynamics arise from the interplay of environmental drivers and disturbances with the demographic processes of recruitment, growth, and mortality, subsequently driving biomass and species composition. However, forest disturbances and subsequent recovery are shifting with global changes in climate and land use, altering these dynamics. Changes in environmental drivers, land use, and disturbance regimes are forcing forests toward younger, shorter stands. Rising carbon dioxide, acclimation, adaptation, and migration can influence these impacts. Recent developments in Earth system models support increasingly realistic simulations of vegetation dynamics. In parallel, emerging remote sensing datasets promise qualitatively new and more abundant data on the underlying processes and consequences for vegetation structure. When combined, these advances hold promise for improving the scientific understanding of changes in vegetation demographics and disturbances.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Review

MeSH terms

Acclimatization*
Biomass*
Carbon Dioxide / analysis
Climate Change*
Forests*
Models, Biological
Trees / growth & development*

Substances

Carbon Dioxide