Novel Models Predict Postsurgical Recurrence and Overall Survival for Patients with Hepatitis B Virus-Related Solitary Hepatocellular Carcinoma ≤10 cm and Without Portal Venous Tumor Thrombus

Abstract

Background: The predictive model of postsurgical recurrence for solitary early hepatocellular carcinoma (SE-HCC) is not well established. The aim of this study was to develop a novel model for prediction of postsurgical recurrence and survival for patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related SE-HCC ≤10 cm.

Patients and methods: Data from 1,081 patients with HBV-related SE-HCC ≤10 cm who underwent curative liver resection from 2003 to 2016 in our center were collected retrospectively and randomly divided into the derivation cohort (n = 811) and the internal validation cohort (n = 270). Eight hundred twenty-three patients selected from another four tertiary hospitals served as the external validation cohort. Postsurgical recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) predictive nomograms were generated. The discriminatory accuracies of the nomograms were compared with six conventional hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) staging systems.

Results: Tumor size, differentiation, microscopic vascular invasion, preoperative α-fetoprotein, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, albumin-to-bilirubin ratio, and blood transfusion were identified as the risk factors associated with RFS and OS. RFS and OS predictive nomograms based on these seven variables were generated. The C-index was 0.83 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.79-0.87) for the RFS-nomogram and 0.87 (95% CI, 0.83-0.91) for the OS-nomogram. Calibration curves showed good agreement between actual observation and nomogram prediction. Both C-indices of the two nomograms were substantially higher than those of the six conventional HCC staging systems (0.54-0.74 for RFS; 0.58-0.76 for OS) and those of HCC nomograms reported in literature.

Conclusion: The novel nomograms were shown to be accurate at predicting postoperative recurrence and OS for patients with HBV-related SE-HCC ≤10 cm after curative liver resection.

Implications for practice: This multicenter study proposed recurrence or mortality predictive nomograms for patients with hepatitis B virus-related solitary early hepatocellular carcinoma ≤10 cm after curative liver resection. A close postsurgical surveillance protocol and adjuvant therapy should be considered for patients at high risk of recurrence.

Keywords: Early stage; Hepatocellular carcinoma; Nomogram; Prognosis.