A risk model that combines MAP, PlGF, and PAPP-A in the first trimester of pregnancy to predict hypertensive disorders of pregnancy

Abstract

Whether the first trimester maternal mean arterial pressure (MAP), placental growth factor (PlGF), and pregnancy-associated plasma protein A (PAPP-A) can predict hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (HDP) is unclear. We conducted a retrospective case-control study with the total population of 539 gravidas, of these 447 had normal pregnancy, 27 had gestational hypertension (GH), 36 had preeclampsia (PE), and 29 had preeclampsia with severe features (SPE). Prediction for HDP was determined by the area under curve (AUC). Compared to the healthy group, the multiple of the median (MoM) for MAP was increased in the study groups, while PlGF and PAPP-A were decreased. When the cutoff values for MAP, PlGF, and PAPP-A were 1.069, 0.769, and 0.673 MoM, respectively, the sensitivities for predicting HDP were 0.517, 0.446, and 0.500 and the specificities were 0.744, 0.826, and 0.769, respectively. To predict GH, the highest AUC was 0.755 (95% CI: 0.655-0.856, p < 0.001) based on MAP, PlGF, and PAPP-A. The combined PlGF and PAPP-A had the highest AUC (0.683 [95% CI: 0.584-0.782, p < 0.001] and 0.755 [95% CI: 0.682-0.829, p < 0.001]) for prediction of PE and SPE. We found that MAP, serum levels of PlGF, and PAPP-A in the first trimester pregnancy are markers that predict HDP in the third trimester. The combination of markers is far superior to single markers alone. To improve the diagnostic value, specific cutoff values should be applied to GH, PE, SPE in each condition.