Prediction of Prognosis for cHCC-CC Patients After Surgery: Comparison of Tumor Marker Score Based on AFP, CEA, CA19-9, and Other Clinical Stages

Ann Surg Oncol. 2021 Nov;28(12):7647-7660. doi: 10.1245/s10434-021-09949-1. Epub 2021 Apr 26.

Abstract

Background: The effectiveness of clinical stage as a prognostic factor in combined hepatocellular carcinoma and cholangiocarcinoma (cHCC-CC) patients is controversial.

Patients and methods: Medical records of all pathologically confirmed cHCC-CC patients from 2000 to 2017 at West China Hospital were retrieved. Tumor marker score (TMS) was determined from optimal AFP, CEA, and CA19-9 cutoff values. Interaction and subgroup analysis were conducted according to potential confounders. Prognostic value of TMS and other prognostic models were evaluated by Kaplan-Meier (K-M) analysis, c-index, and time-dependent receiver operating curves (td-ROC).

Results: Optimal cutoff values for preoperative AFP, CEA, and CA19-9 were 10.76 ng/mL, 5.24 ng/mL, and 31.54 U/mL, respectively. Among 128 patients, 24, 58, and 46 were classified into TMS 0, TMS 1, and TMS ≥ 2, respectively. TMS could stratify our series into groups of statistically different prognosis. Subgroup analysis according to potential confounders and test for interactions showed that TMS 1 and TMS ≥ 2 were stable risk factors relative to TMS 0. Univariate (HR: TMS1 = 2.30, p = 0.014; TMS ≥ 2 = 5.1, p < 0.001) and multivariate Cox regression analyses (HR: TMS1 = 1.72, p = 0.124; TMS ≥ 2 = 4.15, p < 0.001) identified TMS as an independent prognostic risk factor. TMS had good discrimination (c-index 0.666, 95% CI 0.619-0.714), and calibration plots revealed favorable consistency. Area under the curve (AUC) value of td-ROC for TMS and integrated AUC was higher than for other clinical stages at any month within 5 years postoperation.

Conclusion: TMS exhibited optimal prognostic value over other widely used clinical stages for cHCC-CC after surgery and may guide clinicians in prognostic prediction.

MeSH terms

  • Bile Duct Neoplasms*
  • Bile Ducts, Intrahepatic
  • Biomarkers, Tumor
  • CA-19-9 Antigen
  • Carcinoembryonic Antigen
  • Carcinoma, Hepatocellular* / diagnosis
  • Carcinoma, Hepatocellular* / surgery
  • Cholangiocarcinoma* / diagnosis
  • Cholangiocarcinoma* / surgery
  • Humans
  • Liver Neoplasms* / diagnosis
  • Liver Neoplasms* / surgery
  • Prognosis
  • alpha-Fetoproteins

Substances

  • Biomarkers, Tumor
  • CA-19-9 Antigen
  • Carcinoembryonic Antigen
  • alpha-Fetoproteins