Meta-analysis: global prevalence, trend and forecasting of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in children and adolescents, 2000-2021

Abstract

Background: NAFLD is increasing in children.

Aims: To determine the recent trend and forecast the future global prevalence of paediatric NAFLD METHODS: We searched PubMed, Embase, Web of Science and Cochrane library databases from inception to 1 May 2021 for studies of children and adolescents (≤21 years) with NAFLD. Obesity was defined with weight at ≥95th percentile and overweight as 85th to <95th percentile as per the Center for Disease Control BMI-for-age percentile cut-offs.

Results: From 3350 titles and abstracts, we included 74 studies (276,091 participants) from 20 countries/regions. We included 14 studies in the general NAFLD prevalence analysis, yielding an overall prevalence of 7.40% (95% CI: 4.17-12.81) regardless of the diagnostic method, and 8.77% (95% CI: 3.86-18.72) by ultrasound. Among continents with more than one study, the prevalence of NAFLD was 8.53% (95% CI: 5.71-12.55) for North America, 7.01% (95% CI: 3.51-13.53) for Asia, and 1.65% (95% CI: 0.97-2.80) for Europe. NAFLD prevalence regardless of the diagnostic method was 52.49% (95% CI: 46.23-58.68, 9159 participants) and 39.17% (95% CI: 30.65-48.42, 5371 participants) among obese and overweight/obese participants, respectively. For the general population, trend analysis from 2000 to 2017 indicates an increasing global prevalence of paediatric NAFLD from 4.62% to 9.02% at a yearly increase of 0.26%, whereas forecast analysis predicts a prevalence of 30.7% by 2040.

Conclusion: The prevalence of paediatric NAFLD varies by region and is 52.49% overall among the obese population and 7.40% in the general population. It is predicted to reach 30.7% by 2040.