Background: Liver resection is a curative treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and an alternative to liver transplantation (LT). However, post-liver resection recurrence rates remain high. This study aimed to determine whether liver stiffness measurement (LSM) correlated with recurrence and to propose a method for predicting HCC recurrence exclusively using pre-liver resection criteria.
Methods: This retrospective monocentric study included patients who had undergone LR liver resection for HCC between 2015 and 2018 and who had (1) preoperative alpha-fetoprotein scores indicating initial transplant viability and (2) available preoperative LSM data. We developed a predictive score for recurrence over time using Cox univariate regression and multivariate analysis with a combination plot before selecting the optimal thresholds (receiver operating characteristic curves + Youden test).
Results: Sixty-six patients were included. After an average follow-up of 40 months, the recurrence rate was 45% (n = 30). Three-year overall survival was 88%. Four preoperative variables significantly impacted the time to recurrence: age ≥70 years, LSM ≥11 kPa, international normalized ratio (INR) ≥1.2, and maximum HCC diameter ≥3 cm. By assigning 1 point per positive item, patients with a score <2 (n = 22) demonstrated greater mean overall survival (69.7 vs 54.8 months, P = .02) and disease-free survival (52.2 vs 34.7 months, P = .02) than those with a score ≥2. Patients experiencing early recurrence (<1 year) presented a significantly higher preoperative LSM (P = .06).
Conclusion: We identified a simple preoperative score predictive of early hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence after liver resection, highlighting the role of liver stiffness. This score could help physicians select patients and make decisions concerning perioperative medical treatment.
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