Prediction of microvascular complications in diabetic patients without obstructive coronary stenosis based on peri-coronary adipose tissue attenuation model

Abstract

Objectives: To investigate the predictive value of peri-coronary adipose tissue (PCAT) attenuation for microvascular complications in diabetic patients without significant stenosis and to develop a prediction model for early risk stratification.

Methods: This study retrospectively included patients clinically identified for coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) and type 2 diabetes between January 2017 and December 2020. All patients were followed up for at least 1 year. The clinical data and CCTA-based imaging characteristics (including PCAT of major epicardial vessels, high-risk plaque features) were recorded. In the training cohort comprising of 579 patients, two models were developed: model 1 with the inclusion of clinical factors and model 2 incorporating clinical factors + RCA_PCAT using multivariable logistic regression analysis. An internal validation cohort comprising 249 patients and an independent external validation cohort of 269 patients were used to validate the proposed models.

Results: Microvascular complications occurred in 69.1% (758/1097) of the current cohort during follow-up. In the training cohort, model 2 exhibited improved predictive power over model 1 based on clinical factors (AUC = 0.820 versus 0.781, p = 0.003) with lower prediction error (Brier score = 0.146 versus 0.164) compared to model 1. Model 2 accurately categorized 78.58% of patients with diabetic microvascular complications. Similar performance of model 2 in the internal validation cohort and the external validation cohort was further confirmed.

Conclusions: The model incorporating clinical factors and RCA_PCAT predicts the development of microvascular complications in diabetic patients without significant coronary stenosis.

Key points: • Hypertension, HbA1c, duration of diabetes, and RCA_PCAT were independent risk factors for microvascular complications. • The prediction model integrating RCA_PCAT exhibited improved predictive power over the model only based on clinical factors (AUC = 0.820 versus 0.781, p = 0.003) and showed lower prediction error (Brier score=0.146 versus 0.164).

Keywords: Adipose tissue; Computed tomography angiography; Diabetes mellitus; Diabetic angiopathy.