[The predictive value of warning scores for intensive care unit admission in coronavirus disease 2019 patients]

Abstract

To evaluate the predictive value of early warning scores for intensive care unit (ICU) admission in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). For COVID-19 patients who were admitted to Shijiazhuang People's Hospital from January 2021 to February 2021, national early warning score (NEWS), national early warning score 2 (NEWS2), rapid emergency medicine score (REMS), quick sepsis-related organ failure (qSOFA), altered consciousness, blood urea nitrogen, respiratory rate, blood pressure, and age-65 (CURB-65) were used to evaluate the inpatient condition and the predictive value for ICU admission. A total of 368 patients were included, and 32 patients (8.7%) were transferred to the ICU. The median age was 49.0 (34.0,61.0) years. The scores of NEWS, NEWS2, REMS, and CURB-65 were 1 (0, 2), 1 (0, 2), 4 (2, 6) and 0 (0, 1), respectively. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) cure (AUC) was used to evaluate the predictive value in detecting patients who are at risk of being transferred to the ICU. Area under the ROC AUC of NEWS was 0.756, sensitivity 65.6%, and specificity 71.3%. ROC AUC of NEWS2 was 0.732, sensitivity 62.5%, and specificity 61.3%. ROC AUC of REMS was 0.787, sensitivity 84.4%, and specificity 64.6%. ROC AUC of CURB-65 was 0.814, sensitivity 81.3%, and specificity 76.8%. The predictive value of NEWS and NEWS2 combined with age were significantly improved. The ROC AUC of NEWS combined with age was 0.885, sensitivity 85.1%, and specificity 75.0%. The ROC AUC of NEWS2 combined with age was 0.883, sensitivity 84.2%, and specificity 75.0%. NEWS and NEWS2 combined with age can be used as a predictive tool for whether COVID-19 patients will be admitted to the ICU.