Non-eligibility for pivotal HFpEF/HFmrEF outcome trials and mortality in a contemporary heart failure cohort

Abstract

Pivotal outcome trials targeting heart failure with preserved (HFpEF) and mildly-reduced ejection fraction (HFmrEF) may have excluded patients at highest risk of poor outcomes. We aimed to assess eligibility for HFpEF/HFmrEF outcome trials in an unselected heart failure cohort and its association with all-cause mortality. Among 32.028 patients presenting to a tertiary care center emergency unit for any reason between August 2018 and July 2019, we identified 407 admissions with evident HFpEF and HFmrEF. Eligibility criteria for pivotal trials CHARM-Preserved, I-PRESERVE, TOPCAT, PARAGON-HF, EMPEROR-Preserved and DELIVER were assessed by chart review. The proportions of admissions fulfilling HFpEF/HFmrEF trial eligibility criteria were 88% for CHARM-Preserved, 40% for I-PRESERVE, 35% for TOPCAT, 28% for PARAGON-HF, 51% for EMPEROR-Preserved, and 49% for DELIVER. During a median follow-up of 1.9 years, death-from-any-cause occurred in 121 cases (30%). Twenty-four-month overall survival estimates for non-eligible and eligible admissions were 53% vs. 76% for CHARM-Preserved (HR=2.32, 95% CI: 1.47-3.67, p<0.001), 62% vs. 87% for I-PRESERVE (HR=2.97, 1.85-4.77, p<0.001), 67% vs. 84% for TOPCAT (HR=2.04, 1.29-3.24, p = 0.002), 68% vs. 85% for PARAGONHF (HR=2.28, 1.33-3.90, p = 0.003), 64% vs. 81% for EMPEROR-Preserved (HR=1.90, 1.27-2.84, p = 0.002), and 65% vs. 80% for DELIVER (HR=1.71, 1.14-2.57, p = 0.010). Exclusion criteria independently predicting death were eGFR <20 ml/min/1.73 m², COPD with home oxygen therapy, and severe valvular heart disease. Conclusively, in a contemporary HFpEF/HFmrEF cohort, non-eligibility for outcome trials predicted for strongly increased mortality. HFpEF/HFmrEF patients at highest mortality risk were likely underrepresented in previous outcome trials and their treatment remains an unmet medical need.

Keywords: Heart failure with mildly reduced ejection fraction; Heart failure with preserved ejection fraction; Mortality; Randomized controlled trial; Trial design; Trial eligibility.