Improved Long-Term Net Survival after Allogeneic Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation in Patients with Hematologic Malignancies over Two Decades

Abstract

Allogeneic (allo-) hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) has evolved as a curative therapy for hematologic malignancies and diseases, with practice changes over the past 2 decades. This study aimed to evaluate the change in 5-year net survival (NS) of allo-HCT recipients in a population-based cohort over the past 2 decades, which allows the estimation of a more HCT-specific long-term survival rate by considering background mortality changes. This study included 42,064 patients with hematologic malignancies who underwent their first allo-HCT in Japan between 2000 and 2018 and were reported to the Transplant Registry Unified Management Program. We compared the 5-year NS after allo-HCT in 4 consecutive HCT periods (2000 to 2004, 2005 to 2008, 2009 to 2012, and 2013 to 2018). The 5-year NS of the latest period was estimated using the period analysis method. Adjusted excess hazard ratios (EHRs) for 5-year NS over the HCT period were analyzed using an EHR model. In addition to the analysis of all hematologic malignancies, adjusted 5-year NS for each major hematologic malignancy, including acute myelogenous leukemia, acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL), myelodysplastic syndrome, adult T cell leukemia/lymphoma, chronic myeloid leukemia (CML), and malignant lymphoma, was analyzed. The probability of adjusted 5-year NS after HCT improved significantly over time: 35% in 2000 to 2004, 39% in 2005 to 2008, 45% in 2009 to 2012, and 49% in 2013 to 2018. The adjusted EHRs were .90 (95% confidence interval [CI], .86 to .93) in the 2005 to 2008 period, .77 (95% CI, .74 to .80) in the 2009 to 2012 period, and .65 (95% CI, .63 to .68) in the 2013 to 2018 period, with the 2000 to 2004 period as the reference. The 5-year NS improved among all hematologic malignancies, with a significant improvement in CML and ALL. The changes in 5-year NS from the 2000 to 2004 period to the 2013 to 2018 period ranged from 46% to 66% in CML and from 41% to 59% in ALL. In addition to the large improvement of 1-year NS, smaller but continued improvement in NS between 1 and 5 years after transplantation was observed. NS at 5 years conditional on being alive at 1 year increased from 64% in 2000 to 2004 to 73% in 2013 to 2018. Even after subtracting the background mortality in the general population, we found a significant improvement in long-term allo-HCT-specific survival rates for patients with hematologic malignancies over the past 2 decades in Japan.

Keywords: Allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation; Hematologic malignancy; Net survival.