A COVID-19 cluster analysis in an office: Assessing the long-range aerosol and fomite transmissions with infection control measures

Risk Anal. 2024 Jun;44(6):1396-1412. doi: 10.1111/risa.14249. Epub 2023 Nov 7.

Abstract

Simulated exposure to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 in the environment was demonstrated based on the actual coronavirus disease 2019 cluster occurrence in an office, with a projected risk considering the likely transmission pathways via aerosols and fomites. A total of 35/85 occupants were infected, with the attack rate in the first stage as 0.30. It was inferred that the aerosol transmission at long-range produced the cluster at virus concentration in the saliva of the infected cases on the basis of the simulation, more than 108 PFU mL-1. Additionally, all wearing masks effectiveness was estimated to be 61%-81% and 88%-95% reduction in risk for long-range aerosol transmission in the normal and fit state of the masks, respectively, and a 99.8% or above decline in risk of fomite transmission. The ventilation effectiveness for long-range aerosol transmission was also calculated to be 12%-29% and 36%-66% reductions with increases from one air change per hour (ACH) to two ACH and six ACH, respectively. Furthermore, the virus concentration reduction in the saliva to 1/3 corresponded to the risk reduction for long-range aerosol transmission by 60%-64% and 40%-51% with and without masks, respectively.

Keywords: COVID‐19; SARS‐CoV‐2; fomite transmission; long‐range aerosol transmission; risk assessment.

MeSH terms

  • Aerosols*
  • Betacoronavirus
  • COVID-19* / prevention & control
  • COVID-19* / transmission
  • Cluster Analysis
  • Coronavirus Infections / epidemiology
  • Coronavirus Infections / prevention & control
  • Coronavirus Infections / transmission
  • Fomites* / virology
  • Humans
  • Infection Control / methods
  • Masks* / virology
  • Pandemics / prevention & control
  • Pneumonia, Viral / epidemiology
  • Pneumonia, Viral / prevention & control
  • Pneumonia, Viral / transmission
  • Pneumonia, Viral / virology
  • Risk Assessment
  • SARS-CoV-2*
  • Saliva / virology
  • Ventilation

Substances

  • Aerosols