Purpose: Childhood cancer survivors are at the risk of developing subsequent colorectal cancers (CRCs), but the absolute risks by treatment modality are uncertain. We quantified the absolute risks by radiotherapy treatment characteristics using clinically accessible data from a Pan-European wide case-control study nested within a large cohort of childhood cancer survivors: the PanCareSurFup Study.
Methods: Odds ratios (ORs) from a case-control study comprising 143 CRC cases and 143 controls nested within a cohort of 69,460 survivors were calculated. These, together with standardized incidence ratios for CRC for this cohort and European general population CRC incidence rates and survivors' mortality rates, were used to estimate cumulative absolute risks (CARs) by attained age for different categories of radiation to the abdominopelvic area.
Results: Overall, survivors treated with abdominopelvic radiotherapy treatment (ART) were three times more likely to develop a subsequent CRC than those who did not receive ART (OR, 3.1 [95% CI, 1.4 to 6.6]). For male survivors treated with ART, the CAR was 0.27% (95% CI, 0.17 to 0.59) by age 40 years, 1.08% (95% CI, 0.69 to 2.34) by age 50 years (0.27% expected in the general population), and 3.7% (95% CI, 2.36 to 7.80) by age 60 years (0.95% expected). For female survivors treated with ART, the CAR was 0.29% (95% CI, 0.18 to 0.62) by age 40 years, 1.03% (95% CI, 0.65 to 2.22) by age 50 years (0.27% expected), and 3.0% (95% CI, 1.91 to 6.37) by age 60 years (0.82% expected).
Conclusion: We demonstrated that by age 40 years survivors of childhood cancer treated with ART already have a similar risk of CRC as those age 50 years in the general population for whom population-based CRC screening begins in many countries. This information should be used in the development of survivorship guidelines for the risk stratification of survivors concerning CRC risk.