Introduction: With recent advances in breast cancer (BC) treatment, the disease-free survival (DFS) of patients is increasing and the risk factors for recurrence and metastasis are changing. However, a dynamic approach to assessing the risk of recurrent metastasis in BC is currently lacking. This study aimed to develop a dynamically changing prediction model for recurrent metastases based on conditional survival (CS) analysis.
Methods: Clinical and pathological data from patients with BC who underwent surgery at the Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University between August 2011 and August 2022 were retrospectively analysed. The risk of recurrence and metastasis in patients with varying survival rates was calculated using CS analysis, and a risk prediction model was constructed.
Results: A total of 4244 patients were included in this study, with a median follow-up of 83.16 ± 31.59 months. Our findings suggested that the real-time DFS of patients increased over time, and the likelihood of DFS after surgery correlated with the number of years of prior survival. We explored different risk factors for recurrent metastasis in baseline patients, 3-year, and 5-year disease-free survivors, and found that low HER2 was a risk factor for subsequent recurrence in patients with 5-year DFS. Based on this, conditional nomograms were developed. The nomograms showed good predictive ability for recurrence and metastasis in patients with BC.
Conclusion: Our study showed that the longer patients with BC remained disease-free, the greater their chances of remaining disease-free again. Predictive models for recurrence and metastasis risk based on CS analysis can help improve the confidence of patients fighting cancer and help doctors personalise treatment and follow-up plans.
Keywords: HER2; breast cancer; conditional survival; disease-free survival; nomograms.
Conditional survival in breast cancer With recent advances in breast cancer (BC) treatment, the disease-free survival of patients is increasing and the risk factors for recurrence and metastasis are changing. One of the key risk factor is the human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2). However, the recent advent of anti-HER2 antibody-drug conjugates (ADC) has challenged the traditional binary classification based on HER2. Patients in the traditional HER2-negative group can now be further classified as HER2-low (ISH-negative with IHC1 or IHC2) or HER2-0 (ISH-negative and IHC-0). Does this categorisation also have some value for the prognosis of BC? To figure this out, we retrospectively analysed the clinical and pathological data of BC patients who underwent surgery at the Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University between August 2011 and August 2022. The risk of recurrence and metastasis in patients with varying survival rates was calculated using conditional survival analysis, and a risk prediction model was constructed.Our findings suggested that the real-time disease-free survival (DFS) of patients increased over time, and the likelihood of DFS after surgery correlated with the number of years of prior survival. Conditional nomograms were developed for baseline patients, 3-year and 5-year disease-free survivors. The nomograms showed good predictive ability for recurrence and metastasis in patients with BC.
© The Author(s), 2024.