Importance: Previous studies have demonstrated the associations of daily high temperature with hospitalizations and mortality from ischemic stroke, but the hourly association of ambient heat and acute ischemic stroke (AIS) onset has been rarely examined.
Objectives: To evaluate the association between hourly high ambient temperature and the onset of AIS.
Design, setting, and participants: This time-stratified case-crossover study was conducted using a nationwide registry that collects data from more than 200 stroke centers in China. Participants were adult patients with AIS who were hospitalized in the warm seasons between January 1, 2019, and December 31, 2021.
Exposures: Hourly temperature and single-hour temperature exposure lag up to 24 hours before the AIS onset (lag 0 hours to lag 24 hours).
Main outcomes and measures: The main outcome was onset of AIS. Associations between hourly mean temperatures and AIS onset were analyzed using conditional logistic regression integrated with the distributed lag nonlinear model. Stratification analyses were applied to examine potential association modifiers. Several sensitivity analyses were conducted to examine the robustness of the results.
Results: A total of 82 455 patients with AIS (mean [SD] age, 65.8 [11.9] years; 52 267 males [63.4%]) were included in the final analysis. A monotonically increasing risk of AIS onset was associated with higher temperatures. The excess AIS risk occurred immediately at lag 0 hours and persisted for 10 hours. Compared with the reference temperature (12.1 °C), the cumulative odds ratio (OR) over lag 0 to 10 hours of AIS onset associated with extremely high temperature (33.3 °C) was 1.88 (95% CI, 1.65-2.13) nationwide. The exposure-response curve was steeper in the north than in the south (OR, 1.80 [95% CI, 1.53-2.11] vs 1.57 [95% CI, 1.31-1.87]). The ORs were greater for males and patients with a history of dyslipidemia or atrial fibrillation, but the differences were not significant.
Conclusions and relevance: Results of this study suggest that hourly heat exposure is associated with increased risk of AIS onset. This finding may benefit the formulation of public health strategies to reduce cerebrovascular risk associated with high ambient temperature under global warming.