Estimated Population-Level Impact of Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccines Against All-Cause Pneumonia Mortality Among Unvaccinated in 5 Latin American Countries

J Infect Dis. 2024 Oct 16;230(4):e768-e776. doi: 10.1093/infdis/jiae144.

Abstract

Background: Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) provide strong direct protection in children, while limited data are available on their indirect effect on mortality among older age groups. This multicountry study aimed to assess the population-level impact of pediatric PCVs on all-cause pneumonia mortality among children ≥5 years of age, and invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) cases in Chile.

Methods: Demographic and mortality data from Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Mexico were collected considering the ≥ 5-year-old population, from 2000 to 2019, with 1 795 789 deaths due to all-cause pneumonia. IPD cases in Chile were also evaluated. Time series models were employed to evaluate changes in all-cause pneumonia deaths during the postvaccination period, with other causes of death used as synthetic controls for unrelated temporal trends.

Results: No significant change in death rates due to all-cause pneumonia was detected following PCV introduction among most age groups and countries. The proportion of IPD cases caused by vaccine serotypes decreased from 29% (2012) to 6% (2022) among people aged ≥65 years in Chile.

Discussion: While an effect of PCV against pneumonia deaths (a broad clinical definition that may not be specific enough to measure indirect effects) was not detected, evidence of indirect PCV impact was observed among vaccine-type-specific IPD cases.

Keywords: Latin American countries; all-cause pneumonia; indirect effects; interrupted time series; mortality; national registry; pneumococcal conjugate vaccines; pneumococcus; synthetic control model; vaccine impact.

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Brazil / epidemiology
  • Child
  • Child, Preschool
  • Chile / epidemiology
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Latin America / epidemiology
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Pneumococcal Infections / epidemiology
  • Pneumococcal Infections / mortality
  • Pneumococcal Infections / prevention & control
  • Pneumococcal Vaccines* / administration & dosage
  • Pneumonia, Pneumococcal* / epidemiology
  • Pneumonia, Pneumococcal* / mortality
  • Pneumonia, Pneumococcal* / prevention & control
  • Streptococcus pneumoniae* / immunology
  • Vaccines, Conjugate* / administration & dosage

Substances

  • Pneumococcal Vaccines
  • Vaccines, Conjugate