Does delayed operation increase morbidity and mortality? An analysis of emergency general surgery procedures

Abstract

Background: Early operation is assumed to improve outcomes after emergency general surgery (EGS) procedures; however, few data exist to inform this opinion. We aimed to (1) characterize time-to-operation patterns among EGS procedures and (2) test the association between timing and patient outcomes. We hypothesize that patients receiving later operations are at greater risk for mortality and morbidity.

Methods: We performed a retrospective cohort study of the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program data for adults aged 18 to 89 years who underwent nonelective intra-abdominal operations (appendectomy, cholecystectomy, small bowel resection, lysis of adhesions, and colectomy) from 2015 to 2020. The primary outcome was 30-day postoperative mortality. Secondary outcomes were serious morbidity and all morbidity. Admission-to-operation timing was calculated and classified as early (≤48 hours) or late (>48 hours). A multivariable logistic regression model adjusted risk estimates for age, comorbidities, frailty (Modified Frailty Index, 5-item score), and other confounders.

Results: Of 269,959 patients (mean age, 47.0 years; 48.0% male, 61.6% White), 88.7% underwent early operation, ranging from 70.36% (lysis of adhesions) to 98.67% (appendectomy). Unadjusted 30-day mortality was higher for late versus early operation (6.73% vs. 1.96%; p < 0.0001). After risk adjustment, late operation significantly increased risk for 30-day mortality (odds ratio [OR], 1.545; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.451-1.644), serious morbidity (OR, 1.464; 95% CI, 1.416-1.514), and all morbidity (OR, 1.468; 95% CI, 1.417-1.520). This mortality risk persisted for all EGS procedures; risk of serious and any morbidity persisted for all procedures except cholecystectomy.

Conclusion: Late operation significantly increased risk for 30-day mortality, serious morbidity, and all morbidity across a variety of EGS procedures. We believe that these findings will inform decisions regarding timing of EGS operations and allocation of surgical resources.

Level of evidence: Therapeutic/Care Management; Level III.