Background: Depressive symptoms are established risk factors for various health outcomes. However, previous studies assessed depressive symptoms at a single time point, neglecting individual variations over time.
Aims: To identify depressive symptoms trajectories through repeated measures and examine their associations with cardiovascular disease (CVD), cancer and mortality.
Methods: This study included 20 634 UK Biobank participants free of CVD and cancer at baseline with two or more assessments of depressive symptoms during 2006-2016. Group-based trajectory modelling identified depressive symptoms trajectories. Incident CVD, cancer and mortality were followed up until 2021 through linked registries.
Results: Six depressive symptoms trajectories were identified: no symptoms (n=6407), mild-stable (n=11 539), moderate-stable (n=2183), severe-decreasing (n=206), moderate-increasing (n=177) and severe-stable (n=122). During a median follow-up of 5.5 years, 1471 CVD cases, 1275 cancer cases and 503 deaths were documented. Compared with the no symptoms trajectory, the mild-stable, moderate-stable and severe-stable trajectories exhibited higher CVD risk, with hazard ratios (HRs) (95% CIs) of 1.19 (1.06 to 1.34), 1.32 (1.08 to 1.34) and 2.99 (1.85 to 4.84), respectively. Moderate-increasing and severe-stable trajectories were associated with higher mortality risks, with HRs (95% CIs) of 2.27 (1.04 to 4.93) and 3.26 (1.55 to 6.88), respectively. However, the severe-decreasing trajectory was not associated with higher risks of adverse outcomes. We did not find significant associations between any trajectory and cancer.
Conclusions: Trajectories related to stable and increasing depressive symptoms, but not the trajectory associated with severe depressive symptoms at the initial assessment but decreasing at the follow-up, were associated with higher risks of CVD and mortality. Alleviating severe depressive symptoms at the initial onset may mitigate CVD and mortality risks.
Keywords: Cohort Studies; Depression; Depressive Disorder; Epidemiologic Studies.
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