Age-specific Multimorbidity Patterns and Burden on All-Cause Mortality and Public Direct Medical Expenditure: A Retrospective Cohort Study

J Epidemiol Glob Health. 2024 Sep;14(3):1077-1088. doi: 10.1007/s44197-024-00256-y. Epub 2024 Jun 13.

Abstract

Objective: To evaluate age-specific multimorbidity patterns and morbidity burden on mortality and healthcare expenditure across age groups.

Patients and methods: Retrospective observational study between January 1, 2009 to December 31, 2017 using electronic health records in Hong Kong: Individuals were stratified by age (< 50, 50-64, 65-79, ≥ 80), and sub-classified by number of morbidities (0, 1, 2, 3, ≥ 4) out of 21 common chronic conditions. Clustering analyses were conducted to identify specific patterns of multimorbidity. Association between the number as well as combinations of morbidities and all-cause mortality and public expenditure was examined.

Results: 4,562,832 individuals with a median follow-up of 7 years were included. Mental disorders were the top morbidities among young individuals, while cardiovascular diseases were prevalent in the elderly. An increased number of morbidities was associated with a greater relative risk for mortality and medical expenditure, and this relationship was stronger among younger patients. Compared to individuals in the same age group without morbidity, the hazard ratios (HR; 95% CI) of all-cause mortality in patients aged < 50 and ≥ 80 with two comorbidities 3.81 (3.60-4.03) and 1.38 (1.36-1.40), respectively, which increased to 14.22 (9.87-20.47) and 2.20 (2.13-2.26), respectively, as the number of morbidities increased to ≥ 4. The stroke-hypertension cluster was shown to be associated with the highest HR of mortality 2.48 (2.43-2.53) among all identified clusters arising from the clustering analysis.

Conclusion: Given the stronger association between multimorbidity and all-cause mortality and greater opportunity costs in younger populations, prevention and management of early-onset multimorbidity are warranted. (248 words).

Keywords: All-cause mortality; Healthcare expenditure; Multimorbidity; Observational study.

Publication types

  • Observational Study

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Age Factors
  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Cause of Death
  • Cost of Illness
  • Female
  • Health Expenditures* / statistics & numerical data
  • Hong Kong / epidemiology
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Mortality / trends
  • Multimorbidity*
  • Retrospective Studies