Prediction of future microplastic accumulation in agricultural soils

Abstract

This study shows the general exponential rise in microplastic accumulation in agricultural soils, with fertilizer application speeding up this increase, and future predictions of microplastic concentrations. Utilizing data from the Broadbalk winter wheat experiment at Rothamsted Research, UK, from 1846 to 2022, Poisson regression models were applied to microplastic counts under different soil treatments, including farmyard manure, inorganic fertilizers, and control conditions. A mass conversion factor was applied to obtain the w/w relationship. Results indicated a significant annual increase in microplastic concentrations across all treatments, with fertilized soils showing a notably higher accumulation rate. Our study forecasts that, in 50 and 100 years from now, soils treated with fertilizers are expected to reach microplastic concentrations of 168.9 mg kg^-1 (95% CI: 60.32-473.09) and 1159 mg kg^-1 (95% CI: 200.49-6699.8) respectively, levels converging on those used in many experiments. This highlights the urgent need for strategies to mitigate microplastic pollution in agricultural fields. The results also help to choose predicted concentrations in global change experiments, as well as to motivate further research to explore the mechanisms of microplastic accumulation and the integration of these insights into broader agricultural and ecological models to guide sustainable practices and environmental conservation.

Keywords: Agriculture; Exponential growth; Global change; Microplastic; Soil.