Derivation of a clinical decision rule for termination of resuscitation in non-traumatic pediatric out-of-hospital cardiac arrest

Abstract

Aim: Prehospital termination of resuscitation (ToR) rules are used to predict medical futility in adult out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA), however, the available evidence for pediatric patients is limited. The primary aim of this study is to derive a Pediatric Termination of Resuscitation (PToR) prediction rule for use in pediatric non-traumatic OHCA patients.

Methods: We analyzed a retrospective cohort of pediatric OHCA patients within the CARES database over a 10-year period (2013-2022). We split the dataset into training and test datasets and fit logistic regressions with Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) to select predictor variables and estimate predictive test characteristics for the primary outcome of death and a secondary composite outcome of death or survival to hospital discharge with unfavorable neurologic status.

Results: We analyzed a sample of 21,240 children where 2,326 (11.0%) survived to hospital discharge, and 1,894 (8.9%) survived to hospital discharge with favorable neurologic status. We derived a PToR rule for death demonstrating a specificity of 99.1% and a positive predictive value (PPV) of 99.8% and a PToR rule for death or survival with poor neurologic status with a specificity of 99.7% and PPV of 99.9% within the test dataset.

Conclusion: We derived a clinical prediction rule with high specificity and positive predictive value in prehospital settings utilizing Advanced Life Support (ALS) providers which may inform termination of resuscitation considerations in pediatric patients. Further prospective and validation studies will be necessary to define the appropriateness and applicability of these PToR criteria for routine use.

Keywords: CARES; Cardiac Arrest; EMS Protocols; Pediatric OHCA; Termination of Resuscitation.