Predicting harmful alcohol use prevalence in Sub-Saharan Africa between 2015 and 2019: Evidence from population-based HIV impact assessment

PLoS One. 2024 Oct 9;19(10):e0301735. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0301735. eCollection 2024.

Abstract

Introduction: Harmful alcohol use is associated with significant risks to public health outcomes worldwide. Although data on harmful alcohol use have been collected by population-based HIV Impact Assessment (PHIA), there is a dearth of analysis on the effect of HIV/ART status on harmful alcohol use in the Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries with PHIA surveys.

Methods: A secondary analysis of the PHIA surveys: Namibia (n = 27,382), Tanzania (n = 1807), Zambia (n = 2268), Zimbabwe (n = 3418), Malawi (n = 2098), Namibia (n = 27,382), and Eswatini (n = 2762). Using R version 4.2, we analysed the uptake and correlates of harmful alcohol consumption in SSA. The cutoff point for statistically significant was P<0.05.

Results: Of the 12,460 persons, 15% used alcohol harmfully. Harmful alcohol use varied by countries and ranged from 8.7% in Malawi to 26.1% in Namibia (P<0.001). Being female or HIV-positive and on ART were associated with less-likelihood of harmful alcohol consumption however persons that were HIV-positive and not on ART was associated with higher likelihood of harmful alcohol use (OR = 1.49, 95% CI: 1.32-1.69, P<0.001). The best performing models were Lasso or Super Learner or Random Forest were the best performing models while gradient boosting models or sample mean did not perform well.

Conclusion: Harmful alcohol use was high. Harmful alcohol use varied by countries, sex, age, HIV/ART status and marital status. Therefore, there is a need to introduce or enforce harmful alcohol use control policies in SSA through taking into account these characteristics.

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Adult
  • Africa South of the Sahara / epidemiology
  • Alcohol Drinking / epidemiology
  • Alcoholism / epidemiology
  • Female
  • HIV Infections* / epidemiology
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Prevalence
  • Young Adult

Grants and funding

The author(s) received no specific funding for this work.