Machine learning-based remission prediction in rheumatoid arthritis patients treated with biologic disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs: findings from the Kuwait rheumatic disease registry

Abstract

Background: Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a common condition treated with biological disease-modifying anti-rheumatic medicines (bDMARDs). However, many patients exhibit resistance, necessitating the use of machine learning models to predict remissions in patients treated with bDMARDs, thereby reducing healthcare costs and minimizing negative effects.

Objective: The study aims to develop machine learning models using data from the Kuwait Registry for Rheumatic Diseases (KRRD) to identify clinical characteristics predictive of remission in RA patients treated with biologics.

Methods: The study collected follow-up data from 1,968 patients treated with bDMARDs from four public hospitals in Kuwait from 2013 to 2022. Machine learning techniques like lasso, ridge, support vector machine, random forest, XGBoost, and Shapley additive explanation were used to predict remission at a 1-year follow-up.

Results: The study used the Shapley plot in explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) to analyze the effects of predictors on remission prognosis across different types of bDMARDs. Top clinical features were identified for patients treated with bDMARDs, each associated with specific mean SHAP values. The findings highlight the importance of clinical assessments and specific treatments in shaping treatment outcomes.

Conclusion: The proposed machine learning model system effectively identifies clinical features predicting remission in bDMARDs, potentially improving treatment efficacy in rheumatoid arthritis patients.

Keywords: KRRD; bDMARDs; explainable artificial intelligence; machine learning; rheumatoid arthritis.