Background: Despite mounting evidence linking neurological diseases with climate change, the link between autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and global warming has yet to be explored.
Aims: To examine the relationship between the incidence of ASD and global warming from 1990 to 2019 and estimate the trajectory of ASD incidence from 2020 to 2100 globally.
Method: We extracted meteorological data from TerraClimate between 1990 and 2019. To estimate the association between global ASD incidence and temperature variation, we adopted a two-stage analysis strategy using a generalised additive regression model. Additionally, we projected future ASD incidence under four representative shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs: 126, 245, 370 and 585) by bootstrapping.
Results: Between 1990 and 2019, the global mean incidence of ASD in children under 5 years old was 96.9 per 100 000. The incidence was higher in males (147.5) than in females (46.3). A 1.0 °C increase in the temperature variation was associated with a 3.0% increased risk of ASD incidence. The association was stronger in boys and children living in a low/low-middle sociodemographic index region, as well as in low-latitude areas. According to the SSP585 scenario, by 2100, the children living in regions between 10 and 20° latitude, particularly in Africa, will experience a 68.6% increase in ASD incidence if the association remains. However, the SSP126 scenario is expected to mitigate this increase, with a less than 10% increase in incidence across all latitudes.
Conclusions: Our study highlights the association between climate change and ASD incidence worldwide. Prospective studies are warranted to confirm the association.
Keywords: Autism spectrum disorder; shared socioeconomic pathways; temperature variation.