ECG, clinical and novel CT-imaging predictors of necessary pacemaker implantation after transfemoral aortic valve replacement

Abstract

Purpose: Newly onset conduction disturbances with the need for permanent pacemaker (PPM) implantation remain the most common complication of transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR). The objective was to evaluate the predictive value of clinical, ECG and new pre-procedural CT-imaging parameters for the requirement of PPM-implantation after TAVR.

Methods: 2105 consecutive patients receiving TAVR using a balloon expandable prosthesis (Sapien 3, Edwards Lifesciences, Irving, CA, USA) at our institution were enrolled. Patients receiving a valve-in-valve prosthesis, TAVR after surgical repair, with missing or non-diagnostic CT-scans, with pre-implanted PPM and after TAVR in mitral position were excluded. The most suitable classification model for the given dataset was first identified through benchmark testing and later applied for prediction analysis.

Results: 312 eligible patients requiring PPM implantation were compared to an age- matched control group of 305 patients not requiring PPM implantation. A scaled LASSO model allowed for most accurate prediction with an AUC of 0.70. Right bundle branch block was the strongest predictor (OR 2.739), followed by atrioventricular block 1° (OR 2.091), prosthesis diameter (OR 1.351), atrial fibrillation (OR 1.255), arterial hypertension (OR 1.215), coronary artery disease (1.070), the angle of ventricle axis and aortic root (OR 1.030), sinotubular junction height (OR 1.014) and the calcification of the left coronary cuspid (OR 1.007).

Conclusions: ECG- and clinical outperform imaging parameters in predicting PPM-implantation following TAVR. Right bundle branch block emerged as the most significant predictor overall, while the angle of ventricle axis and aortic root as a novel imaging-based predictor.

Keywords: CT-imaging; ECG; LASSO; Pacemaker; Prediction; TAVR.