Structured Estimation of Heterogeneous Time Series

Multivariate Behav Res. 2024 Nov-Dec;59(6):1270-1289. doi: 10.1080/00273171.2023.2283837. Epub 2024 Feb 18.

Abstract

How best to model structurally heterogeneous processes is a foundational question in the social, health and behavioral sciences. Recently, Fisher et al. introduced the multi-VAR approach for simultaneously estimating multiple-subject multivariate time series characterized by common and individualizing features using penalized estimation. This approach differs from many popular modeling approaches for multiple-subject time series in that qualitative and quantitative differences in a large number of individual dynamics are well-accommodated. The current work extends the multi-VAR framework to include new adaptive weighting schemes that greatly improve estimation performance. In a small set of simulation studies we compare adaptive multi-VAR with these new penalty weights to common alternative estimators in terms of path recovery and bias. Furthermore, we provide toy examples and code demonstrating the utility of multi-VAR under different heterogeneity regimes using the multivar package for R.

Keywords: Time series analysis; heterogeneity; regularization.

MeSH terms

  • Computer Simulation* / statistics & numerical data
  • Data Interpretation, Statistical
  • Humans
  • Models, Statistical*
  • Multivariate Analysis